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Wednesday, November 29, 2006

The cards have been dealt... Time for the showdown

In keeping with my tradition of diverging from the title of the post, I can't help but notice a convergence of the omens of doom, single file, in military formation under the leadership of the bearded one awaiting what has been dubbed the "zero hour"... On to the omens.

It seems that the flu of divine ligitimacy has spread to his holiness, general Aoun, who said (assafir) that they had reached the "stage of holy anger" (مرحلة الغضب المقدس) and added that "there will be no bloodletting, those who want to kill us can kill us, martyrdom is not only for Muslims" (wow and the guy is "secular"...), declaring that "our option is merge with our environment" (Syria? Iran? Political retro-Islam?) "because it protects everyone..."... Give me a break herr general...

Meanwhile, the other general, the one who sits at the helm of this wretched country of ours justified civil disobedience by government employees, citing disobedience in India at the time of Ghandi (So who exactly is Ghandi here? and who is the foreign oocupation? and since when has our beloved general turned president been a spiritual-intellectual figure?... Give me a break herr general...

About the same time, more signs whats to come "emanated" from Berri, who has shown his true colors and mettle yet another time, by declaring that there is no way now "to avoid the street even if its unwanted" (Really? Last I heard, free will was key, but then again that presupposes that you have it, and that you really don't want to hit the streets. I think both presuppositions are wrong...)

At this time, my only hope is in one of the institutions that I have a strong dislike for, the army. It is up to them to hold the peace, prevent rioting, clashes, and protect the government. What doesn't go for Lahoud, can't go for Siniora. Plain and simple. In the meantime, March 14 should finally grow a pair other than Jumblatt's and act rather than keep reacting, usually to murder, and by mass demonstrations whose numbers keep dwindling and by international whining. Enough!!!

The lines are drawn, and its obvious who is about to cross them. I suggest that March 14 pre-empt any "opposition" moves and mobilize its own public to camp in downtown, in defence of the Siniora government. The Siniora government should prove that it is worth defending, by appointing new ministers to replace the resigned 6 and murdered 1 and then wait for the general in baabda to sign, which he won't. At that point, it would be time to march to baabda... Take the initiative goddamnit...


JoseyWales said...

My thoughts exactly (except for March 14 counter-demo).

Abu Kais said...


ghassan karam said...

R, we have over the months dealt with this issue of leadership, reponsibilty,independence, modernity etc.. many times. Many of us are on the same side and I do hope that the Lebanese, at least a major part of the Lebanese, will finally scream that enough is enough and that they will take back the country.

Unfortunately I don't think that it is going to work that way. March 14 might be a well meaning bunch but they sure lack the ability to lead and to be decisive. As for the masses, let us be realistic, they are still predominantly that. They cannot be expected to grow up and mature politically overnight.

I am still of the opinion that the forces of authoritarianism will not win in the final analysis. But Lebanon, and I hate to admit it, will dissapoint the forces of modernity one more time. The grouping of March 14 has history on its side. History unfolds itself forward with a few setbacks but forward it will move. If March 14 is going to win the struggle then why am I not rejoicing? Because even when they win they will not create the modern , non-sectarian liberal state that many of us want. They cannot do that because lasting revolutions must not come from the top and i have not seen any signs that the Lebanese are ready to adopt a society based on institutions, meritand law and order.

Yes let us by all means frustrate the goals of HA/Amal?aoun?Lahoud and their masters but let us notbelieve for a moment the chimera that March 14 is capable to leading the way to the promised land.Even if they prove to be able to march to the promised land, I am afraid that not many will follow. I do not think that we are at the stage where we are ready to let go of Bkirki, Muftis, Imams and the traditional tribal leaders, be they Arslans , Jumblats , Karamis or Franjiehs.

R said...

We are on the same page Ghassan... I have no illusions regarding march 14's capabilities and limitations with regards to state building. The only reason I am invested in them winning is because by them winning, on the long run and with a lot of hard work a positive transformation in Lebanon might be possible. From the bottom up. On the other hand, if they lose, a different kind of transformation will be inevitable, and not of the kind that can be kicked out after 30 years of military presence. Rather it will be a transformation of the kind that crappy inborn dictatorships force, from the top all the way down.

Steve Schippert said...

Well said, R. Both in post and comment.

Anonymous said...

Great piece.

I had posted on YaLibnan that I could not trust DerGeneral that the one to shoot first will loose. And yes, we both used Herr General; somewhat subliminally, we may all be seeing what a Great Dictator HassAoun can be.