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Sunday, November 05, 2006

The one statement that Saad Hariri said that matters

From Almustaqbal :

وعن دخول النظام السوري على الملف السني اللبناني لاختراق الشارع قال: "ان شاء الله يتمّ اختراق الساحة السنية في سوريا، وليس في لبنان".

Rough Translation
...and on the Syrian regime trying to achieve a breakthrough into the Lebanese Sunni street, Saad said: "Hopefully the breakthrough will happen in the Syrian Sunni arena, not the Lebanese one"

Was he only referring to the fact that the Syrian regime has little support among the Syrian Sunnis, or to opponents of the Syrian regime being able to agitate the Sunnis there against the regime? I wonder... But at this point, it might be a good strategic option. The question remains, if thats the strategy, what are the right tactics to pursue?


fubar said...

Assad has been spouting again about "Golan resistence". He seems to be begging for a fight. Why now?

If he has trouble at home, the best way to deflect blame and unite the people is to engage the number one enemy - Israel, even if on a limited scale. He certainly does not want all out war.

With the Hariri tribunal coming, Assad has already hired British international lawyers. But, again, how best to distract the world from a tribunal than with a little conflict with Israel.

And should that conflict spill into Lebanon (very likely), well, so much the better for Assad. Once again, let Lebanon pay the real price.

Not sure where Hariri is heading with this statement, but Assad looks poised to create some sort of international/regional conflict should he start to feel the heat.

Anonymous said...

Right on the money. I suspect that this is WHY Hariri was assassinated in the first place. If you were to leave in a hurry, you would not want to leave strong ennemies behind.

The Sunni-Shiite war I fear may have already started, in cloak and dagger mode.